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And we haven’t addressed the biggest problem of them all: that it’s merely impossible to estimate the total number of viable dating options N.
If I imagine myself spending most of my time chunking codes and writing Medium article about dating in 20 years, how vibrant my social life will be?
Perfect, The One, X, the candidate whose rank is 1, etc.) We do not know when this person will arrive in our life, but we know for sure that out of the next, pre-determined N people we will see, X will arrive at order O_best = i.
Let S(n,k) be the event of success in choosing X among N candidates with our strategy for M = k, that is, exploring and categorically rejecting the first k-1 candidates, then settling with the first person whose rank is better than all you have seen so far. It is obvious that if X is among the first k-1 people who enter our life, then no matter who we choose afterward, we cannot possibly pick X (as we include X in those who we categorically reject).
If you're an avid online dater who's yet to find a lasting relationship, you've no doubt wondered if there's some sort of secret to finding love on a dating app that you're as-yet-unaware of.
Should you use this strategy to find your lifelong partner?
Does it mean you should swipe left on the first 37 attractive profiles on Tinder before or put the 37 guys who slide into your DMs on ‘seen’? The model provides the optimal solution assuming that you set strict dating rules for yourself: you have to set a specific number of candidates N, you have to come up with a ranking system that guarantees no tie (The idea of ranking people does not sit well with many), and once you reject somebody, you never consider them viable dating option again. Sadly, not everybody is there for you to accept or reject — X, when you meet them, might actually reject you!
Of course, you want to end up with the person who ranks 1st — let’s call this person X. And as n gets larger the larger timeframe we consider, this probability will tend to zero.
It means out of all the people you could possibly date, let’s say you foresee yourself dating 100 people in the next 10 years (more like 10 for me but that’s another discussion), you should see about the first 37% or 37 people, and then settle for the first person after that who’s better than the ones you saw before (or wait for the very last one if such a person doesn’t turn up)How do they get to this number? Let’s say we foresee N potential people who will come to our life sequentially and they are ranked according to some ‘matching/best-partner statistics’.